Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in South America⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Peru⮸

Population $32,971,854$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $846,088$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,030,321.3}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 151.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,030,321.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $33,223$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,594.2}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 128.8)}}\) (asimptote \(35,594.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $79,865$ on 2020-10-10

Bolivia⮸

Population $11,673,021$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $138,463$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{142,016.5}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 132.0)}}\) (asimptote \(142,016.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,292$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,257.7}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 150.1)}}\) (asimptote \(10,257.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $29,385$ on 2020-10-10

Brazil⮸

Population $212,559,417$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,055,888$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,329,094.3}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 137.5)}}\) (asimptote \(5,329,094.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $149,639$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{152,913.7}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 117.7)}}\) (asimptote \(152,913.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $403,395$ on 2020-10-10

Chile⮸

Population $19,116,201$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $479,595$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{440,374.4}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 106.7)}}\) (asimptote \(440,374.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $13,272$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,402.7}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 106.7)}}\) (asimptote \(12,402.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $14,269$ on 2020-10-10

Ecuador⮸

Population $17,643,054$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $146,828$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{166,499.1}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 137.0)}}\) (asimptote \(166,499.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $12,188$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,474.7}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 227.9)}}\) (asimptote \(28,474.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $14,129$ on 2020-10-10

Colombia⮸

Population $50,882,891$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $902,747$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{953,917.7}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 155.8)}}\) (asimptote \(953,917.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27,660$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,407.0}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 143.1)}}\) (asimptote \(29,407.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $91,956$ on 2020-10-10

Argentina⮸

Population $45,195,774$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $883,882$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,330,239.2}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 191.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,330,239.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $23,581$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{454,130.4}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 306.5)}}\) (asimptote \(454,130.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $150,837$ on 2020-10-10

Suriname⮸

Population $586,632$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,035$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,155.6}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 150.5)}}\) (asimptote \(5,155.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $107$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{124.1}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 145.1)}}\) (asimptote \(124.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $98$ on 2020-10-10

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Bolivia recovered 52%
Venezuela recovered 36%

Venezuela⮸

Population $28,435,940$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $82,453$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{96,072.6}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 168.7)}}\) (asimptote \(96,072.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $691$ on 2020-10-10

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{856.6}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 160.0)}}\) (asimptote \(856.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,843$ on 2020-10-10