Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $846,088$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,030,321.3}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 151.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,030,321.3\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $33,223$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,594.2}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 128.8)}}\) (asimptote \(35,594.2\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $79,865$ on 2020-10-10
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $138,463$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{142,016.5}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 132.0)}}\) (asimptote \(142,016.5\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,292$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,257.7}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 150.1)}}\) (asimptote \(10,257.7\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $29,385$ on 2020-10-10
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,055,888$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,329,094.3}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 137.5)}}\) (asimptote \(5,329,094.3\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $149,639$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{152,913.7}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 117.7)}}\) (asimptote \(152,913.7\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $403,395$ on 2020-10-10
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $479,595$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{440,374.4}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 106.7)}}\) (asimptote \(440,374.4\))
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $13,272$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,402.7}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 106.7)}}\) (asimptote \(12,402.7\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $14,269$ on 2020-10-10
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $146,828$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{166,499.1}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 137.0)}}\) (asimptote \(166,499.1\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $12,188$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,474.7}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 227.9)}}\) (asimptote \(28,474.7\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $14,129$ on 2020-10-10
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $902,747$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{953,917.7}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 155.8)}}\) (asimptote \(953,917.7\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $27,660$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,407.0}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 143.1)}}\) (asimptote \(29,407.0\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $91,956$ on 2020-10-10
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $883,882$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,330,239.2}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 191.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,330,239.2\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $23,581$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{454,130.4}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 306.5)}}\) (asimptote \(454,130.4\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $150,837$ on 2020-10-10
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,035$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,155.6}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 150.5)}}\) (asimptote \(5,155.6\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $107$ on 2020-10-10
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{124.1}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 145.1)}}\) (asimptote \(124.1\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $98$ on 2020-10-10